2022 Pre-season top 15 Reds prospects

With the Reds making the decision to shed payroll this offseason, the signal seems to be sent that they are pivoting away from immediate contention and towards developing their minor league talent for the future. This bodes well for increased playing time guys like Jose Barrero and Reiver Sanmartin, and increases the likelihood of debuts for others like Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, and perhaps Graham Ashcraft. On the hitting side, it’ll still be a little while before that side of the Reds’ minors reaches the bigs, aside from Barrero. Right now, the next closest hitter to the majors would be shortstop Matt McLain. So, things are a little unbalanced at the moment as far as timing. One more note: Joses Barrero has exceeded his rookie status, so he is no longer on my prospect list. Without further ado, let’s dive into the rankings going into the 2022 season!

Nick Lodolo

1. Nick Lodolo, LHP (AAA)
   Lodolo dominated AA Chattenooga in 2021, pitching 44 innings (truncated because of a blister issue that sidelined him for several starts), with a 13.91 K/9, 1.84 ERA/1.63 FIP, and a 1.84 BB/9. He was promoted to AAA but only managed 6.2 innings before he was shut down with shoulder fatigue. Lodolo will likely start the 2022 season at AAA; he’s a non-roster invitee to Reds spring training camp and I think we could see him get some major league appearances later in the year.
2. Hunter Greene, RHP (AAA)
   After missing all of 2019 with Tommy John surgery and then the minor league season cancelled in 2020, Greene had some rust to shake off. He was torched in a few spring training appearances, but turned things around big time at AA, going 41 innings and pitching to the tune of a 1.98 ERA/2.35 FIP, 13.17 K/9, and an 85 LOB%. Greene was promoted to AAA in the summer and still showed good strikeout stuff but his ERA and FIP both regressed a bit, and walks and home runs also came back up. His breaking pitches took a noticeable step forward over the course of last season, so there’s still reason to think Greene can be the pitcher he shows flashes of. He’s a strong contender for a role in the Reds’ starting rotation.
3. Matt McLain, SS (A+)
   The Reds’ 2021 amateur draft first round pick got off to a nice start at high A, hitting .273/.387/.424 with 3 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Based on the scouting reports I’ve read, McLain looks like he’ll profile as a solid high -average, high-OBP hitter some speed and good strike zone recognition, but the in-game power more than a handful of home runs may not be there.
4. Jay Allen, OF (CPX)
   I’m really intrigued by Allen; granted, small sample size so far but he absolutely raked in 19 games at the complex level last year, hitting .328/.440/.557 with 3 home runs and 14 stolen bases. I’ve heard nothing but good things about his hit tool and intincts.
5. Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS (A)
   I will admit that De La Cruz was not on my radar until he tore up the complex league last year, slashing an incredible .400/.455/.780 for a 207 wRC+. Scouting reports have confirmed that he has incredible tools and instincts, making for an incredibly high ceiling. He did regress some upon promotion to low A but the numbers were still very respectable. I’m excited to see what he does this year and what his floor might be.
6. Graham Ashcraft, RHP (AA)
   Ashcraft was nothing short of a revelation in 2021, posting impressive strikeout rates AND groundball rates that kept his ERA at a sterling 2.33 at A+ and 3.36 at AA. The big question for me is this: does he keep up the strikeouts going forward, or does he become much more a ground ball pitcher? I lean towards the latter simply because his breaking pitches are his most polished and he threw them the most when I sampled a few starts in late spring/summer of last year.
7. Rece Hinds, 3B (A)
   Hinds’ development is running a bit behind schedule between multiple injuries that kept him off the field and the cancelled 2020 season. Hinds seems headed for a high risk/high reward category because of the strikeout issues. But there’s no question that the upside is immense with plenty of ability to hit for power and perhaps some speed as well.
8. Tyler Callihan, 2B (A)
   While questions still abound about where he fits defensively, Callihan possesses an above average hit tool with good power. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow injury early in 2021 and missed the rest of the season after having Tommy John surgery.
9. Austin Hendrick, OF (A)
   Hendrick didn’t get a full season in due to an injury, but he shows a good ability to translate his immense raw power into games; unfortunately between poor contact and a too-patient plate approach (37% K, .211 AVG) it wasn’t a good season for him when he did play. Still, the upside is worth not throwing in the towel on him yet.
10. Bryce Bonnin, RHP (A+)
    There’s exciting strikeout stuff with Bonnin as he shows a plus fastball and slider (12.38 K/9 at low A in 32 innings, 1.41 ERA) but he also has only pitched 44 total innings this year, and did struggle mightly with his command and control when he was bumped to high A (6.55 BB/9). There’s reliever risk here, but even if that’s the path he ends up on, his stuff is potentially good enough for a higher leverage role.
11. Lyon Richardson, RHP (A+)
    I had been high on Richardson previously as I had seen some impressive deception and movement on his pitches, but he absolutely cratered this past season, so much so that I have to wonder if he was hurt. He regressed to an unsightly 4.50 BB/9 and a 5.09 ERA in 76 innings. I put him here because I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, that 2021 was a fluke. But if it’s the same story this year, I expect to drop him down in my rankings.
12. Christian Roa, RHP (A+)
    The Reds’ 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft is still finding his way after battling inconsistencies, walk issues, and an injury that kept him sidelined for two months. He doesn’t yet have a “stand out” pitch but has been effective at times with some of them. I’m waiting to see how he’ll do given a full, healthy season.
13. Allen Cerda, OF (A+)
    Another high risk/high reward prospect; tends to strike out a lot, but impressive power that he was able to translate into games when he was at low A Daytona (14 home runs; 3 home runs at A+ Dayton). Still hopeful that with more work and refinement he can at least tap into that natural power he has.
14. Jose Torres, SS (A)
    Solid defender, plus plus defense; hit well enough in his debut season at low A (.337/.383/.568) but in-game power for home runs is questionable; if the hitting falls off in subsequent seasons, a utility role looks likely. But, still way early.
15. Alejo Lopez, 2B/3B/OF (AAA)
    I’ve always liked Lopez for his ability to hit consistently and draw a reasonable amount of walks; doesn’t have much of any in-game power or speed so the upside is limited. The draw here is his reliabillity.