Early season prospect re-cap and next steps
Apologies for the delay in getting a new post up; I’m currently in the thick of “busy season” at work and have been pretty wiped out when I get home and have lately opted to largely just enjoy watching a game or two, aside from some tweets. But I did want to get everyone up to speed on where things stand at the moment with some of the Reds’ top prospects. So let’s dig in!
Beginning with Hunter Greene, the Reds top pitching prospect has had a largely mixed bag start to the season. His first two starts (against the Braves and Dodgers) yielded 9 strikeouts in 8.2 innings, with 5 earned runs on 9 hits, 4 walks, and 1 home run. He looked especially sharp against the Dodgers; his fastball reached 102 mph (no surprise there) and was well-located; his slider had some wicked movement on it and generated a 50% whiff percentage.
It was a far different story in his home debut against the Cardinals. Not only was he not hitting those triple digits we’ve come to expect (max velo of 97 mph), he was badly missing the zone more often than not. His fastball only generated 5 whiffs and his slider only 1; his CSW% for both pitches was under 30%. He went only 3.1 innings, and surrendered 3 earned runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and only three strikeouts. As bad as he looked, it’s amazing the damage wasn’t worse, honestly. The dip in velocity was most curious; I’ve heard nothing about him being hurt, which leads me to wonder if he purposefully dialed it back in order to work on improving his command/control…which didn’t seem to happen. Given that it’s still so early in the season, I’m reticent to speculate on whether his long-term role may be better suited to the bullpen. We’ll have to see what future starts bring.
Nick Lodolo got off to a rough start in his debut, against the Guardians, going 4 innings and surrendering 5 earned runs on 7 hits, walking 3 and striking out 4. Many of his pitches were well outside the zone. He generated a 40% whiff percentage on his curveball but only 16% whiffs on his sinker (his predominate pitch). Things went much better in his second start against the Padres; he went 5 innings and struck out 8, and gave up only 1 home run, 2 walks, and 3 earned runs on 6 hits. He changed up his pitch usage a bit, throwing more changeups and a few less curveballs; his stuff overall was sharper, generating much better CSW% than in his first start.
I think we’ll see Lodolo stick around in the rotation with Greene when Castillo returns; either Sanmartin or Gutierrez will be the odd man out when Castillo returns from the IL; neither is well suited to starting, in my opinion, having watched them for the last few seasons.
Moving along into the minor league side, Rece Hinds (A+) is off to a slow start so far, hitting just .132/.250/.263 in 44 plate appearances. Even taking his injuries and resultant missed time into account, his 47.7% strikeout rate and 24.7% swinging strikeout rate are concerning. I’d really like to see his plate discipline take a step forward this year, but for that to happen he’ll need a full season staying healthy, which hopefully will happen this season.
Reds’ 2021 draft pick Matt McLain has been off to an impressive start at AA this spring, hitting .267/.346/.644 with 3 home runs and 2 stolen bases. This builds on an strong minor league debut last year when he hit .273/.387/.424 with 3 home runs and 10 swiped bags in 119 plate appearances at high A. I could easily envision him being brought up to AAA before long. The only uncertainty for me is consistent in-game power; from what I’ve seen so far and from scouting reports, McLain seems to profile more as just a good overall hitter mashing line drives and bloops into the outfield for singles and doubles rather than hitting it out of the park with a smattering of stolen bases.
Elly De La Cruz remains an intriguing prospect after bursting onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere in 2021 when he went gangbusters at the Arizona complex league mashing an astounding .400/.455/.780 in 55 plate appearances. De La Cruz is a highly volatile hitter; he has an extremely aggressive plate approach and swings freely, which does pay off at times but has also led to a strikeout rate in the 30s and a walk rate of less than 6%. And for a guy who looks extremely athletic and flight of foot, the most stolen bases he’s amassed so far is 8, at low A last year. Same story with in-game power, just 5 home runs. Barring some steps forward with the plate approach, expectations should probably be tempered.
The lone interesting player in the return from Seattle for Winker and Suarez, RHP Brandon Williamson is off to a shaky start with a 4.85 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 13 innings. But it’s hardly reason to worry excessively; he put up strong numbers in AA in Seattle’s system (12.56 K/9, 3.48 ERA in 67 IP) last season, and he has four pitches rated as plus according to Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs. He’s also a good friend of Nick Lodolo, which can only help!
Outfielder Austin Hendrick, the Reds’ 2020 first round draft pick, is looking much better in his sophomore season at low A. He’s brought his strikeout rate down some, and greatly improved his batting average, from .2ll last year to .325 so far this season. My concern with him last year was he was almost too patient at the plate, taking a lot of pitches instead of trying to put the ball in play. So far it seems he’s making the adjustment to tap into that electric bat speed he possess. If he continues the progress he’s made so far, I could see him move up to A+ this summer.
Graham Ashcraft (AAA) is a pitcher I’ve been talking about for a while, and who still intrigues me. He’s had the most advanced breaking pitches of any Reds minor league pitcher I’ve followed and up until this season he’s managed to achieve both a healthy number of ground balls and strikeouts. Most interestingly, his fastball velocity jumped dramatically this spring, hitting 100 mph. I don’t think he’s going to be able to keep up both the strikeouts and the ground balls; ultimately, his arsenal is more conducive to ground balls. Another potential issue is that his walk rate, which has always been at 8% but which jumped to 11% this spring. My view on him is that he’ll be most suited to a low-leverage middle innings role where he can get the team through 1 or 2 innings.
Outfielder Allen Cerda is another high risk prospect with potential for nice power, but so far has had trouble overcoming his swing and miss tendencies (43% strikeout rate so far this season, 39 plate appearances). I’m not terribly optimistic on him reaching the potential that he flashes from time to time. Maybe 15–20 home runs but with a .230-.250 average.
Bryce Bonnin was the Reds’ 3rd round pick in 2020 and posses an extremely electric arsenal of pitches, with mid-30s to low 40s strikeout rates. The problem is, he’s amassing a track record of injuries; he has yet to pitch more than 32 innings since he entered the Reds’ system in 2021. Given that, it seems likely he’s a candidate to be a high-leverage reliever; I’d go so far as to say closer role given how nasty his stuff is. He’ll likely be at high A again this season when he comes back from rehabbing an injury.
Daniel Vellojin is a catching prospect currently at low A who can legitimately hit (.247/.401/.403 last season with 7 home runs); unfortunately I can’t speak to his defensive abilities as low A doesn’t have video in most if not all of their ballparks. But thankfully even if his defense needs work, the universal DH would provide a slot for him. I believe he’s currently working his way back from an injury. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him move up to high A this year.
That about covers all of the top prospects in the Reds’ system! I’m thinking of posting prospect stats updates here from each week’s games, but haven’t decided on that yet. Regardless, more updates to come!
