Prospect Profile: Allan Cerda

Back in 2018 when I was still writing for Prospects1500.com, I mentioned outfield prospect Allan Cerda in a short blurb in one of my top 50 Reds prospects rankings. At the time, according to scouting reports I read, he looked like he was going to be perhaps the next Ibandel Isabel (former Reds 1B prospect now with a different team)…easy in-game power but a very high strikeout rate and difficulty making regular, quality contact. There were question marks about whether the hit tool would really develop to full potential even if the power stayed consistent.

His debut season in ’18 went fairly well, as he hit .272/.402/.439 with 6 home runs in 51 games at the rookie level. He followed that up with a sophomore campaign (39 games at the next rookie ball level) that saw his average and OBP fall some, but his slugging percentage stay close to the same (hit 9 home runs in 2019). The lack of minor league action in 2020 obviously didn’t help anyone’s development, but nevertheless he continued to show steady improvement this year, bringing his strikeout rate down some (though still higher than you’d like to see) while hitting 14 home runs at low A. Cerda hit .242/.362/.524 at low A before being promoted to A+in late August, where he’s been raking to the tune of .300/.344/.533 in 8 games.

Also encouraging is finding out that he spends time with Nationals star Juan Soto on a regular basis, so maybe we’re seeing that relationship translate to his success at the plate lately. Certainly can’t hurt!

Cerda may ultimately stay a high-strikeout kind of hitter, but some hitters still find a way to be productive in spite of high K rates and I think Cerda fits that bill. I anticipate an increase in his home runs over the next few seasons, a passable walk rate (10 to 12%) and a .250 to .260 something average.